U.S. Supply Chains Under Pressure From Combined Sources

A USMCA review, early trans-Pacific rate spikes and rising inland transport costs are combining to challenge assumptions and reshape U.S. supply chain planning.

The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be one of the more complex planning environments in recent years.

Three distinct pressure points are converging simultaneously: a critical USMCA review with significant implications for North American sourcing; an earlier-than-expected tightening on trans-Pacific ocean freight; and fuel-driven inflation pushing trucking and intermodal costs sharply higher. Together, they are rewriting the assumptions many businesses have used for peak-season planning, cost modelling and inland network design.

 

The USMCA review: more than a formality

The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement reaches its first scheduled joint review on 1 July 2026, six years after the agreement came into force. The three governments must decide whether to confirm the deal through 2042, seek adjustments, or signal opposition, with the latter potentially opening the door to renegotiation and, in the worst case, an eventual sunset in 2036.

This is not expected to be a routine process. Policymakers across all three countries have signalled that the review will be substantive, with likely scrutiny focused on automotive rules of origin, enforcement of labour and environmental commitments, digital trade, energy disputes and the role of foreign investment and components flowing through Mexican or Canadian supply chains into the U.S.

For automotive supply chains, which account for roughly 20–25% of total USMCA trade flows, the stakes are particularly high. Since 2020, tighter regional content requirements have already reshaped sourcing patterns for OEMs and tier suppliers.

For businesses with North American exposure, the next 12–18 months represent a critical window to:

  • Verify that products genuinely qualify under current USMCA rules and identify any borderline compliance cases.
  • Model how tighter regional content or new tracing requirements could affect cost and compliance status.
  • Stress-test sourcing decisions, particularly where there is significant China-origin content flowing via Mexico or Canada into the U.S.

 

Trans-Pacific rates are already climbing

Eastbound trans-Pacific trades are showing clear signs of early peak-season conditions, with spot rates from Asia to both US coasts rising sharply on the back of May general rate increases.

Recent benchmarks show:

  • Spot rates from major South China ports to the U.S. west coast rising close to 100% against levels from only weeks earlier.
  • Asia–U.S. east coast rates up 50–60% over a similar period.
  • Carriers rolling out peak-season surcharges and emergency fuel surcharges ahead of the usual schedule, with further increases signalled for late June and 1 July.

Several factors are driving this tightening ahead of schedule. Importers are front-loading orders to get ahead of anticipated tariff changes and bunker-linked cost increases later in the year. Vessel diversions around southern Africa, combined with congestion at some Asian load ports, are absorbing capacity and disrupting schedules. And carriers are using blank sailings and service adjustments to keep utilisation high and support rate levels.

Some rate relief is possible later in the summer if additional capacity returns and front-loaded volumes ease. But the near-term outlook is one of elevated spot rates and constrained space, with peak-season volumes arriving earlier than planned.

 

Inland transport costs are rising on the back of fuel inflation

War-driven increases in oil prices are pushing U.S. trucking and intermodal costs significantly higher, independently of freight demand levels.

U.S. retail diesel prices have moved from just under USD 4 per gallon to around USD 5.60 per gallon since the escalation involving Iran, with some regions running higher still. That has fed directly into carrier pricing:

  • Truckload and LTL producer price indices have risen markedly, reversing a multi-year period of freight deflation.
  • Spot truckload rates on long-haul lanes have reached their highest levels since 2022, with average per-mile costs up more than 25% year-on-year on some benchmarks.
  • Higher fuel costs and more disciplined capacity management are beginning to pull contract rates up as well, spreading from truckload into LTL and intermodal.

Importantly, these increases are being driven largely by supply-side factors, including reduced capacity, higher fuel costs and more disciplined carrier pricing, rather than by a demand boom. That means transport cost inflation can persist even if volumes remain only modestly above 2025 levels. Shippers who have built budgets on last year’s trucking rates are likely to find them insufficient.

 

Planning for H2 2026

For businesses with U.S. supply chains, the combined effect of these three pressure points is a more volatile, more expensive and less predictable operating environment heading into the second half of the year. The companies best placed to manage that environment are those that act now, before space tightens further, before the 1 July cost resets take effect, and before USMCA uncertainty translates into compliance risk.

Noatum Logistics supports customers with U.S.-connected supply chains through integrated ocean freight, inland transport solutions and customs brokerage, providing the visibility and flexibility needed to manage a complex and fast-moving market. Contact our team to discuss your H2 supply chain strategy.