Shipper opportunities before market bounce

Container Trade Statistics (CTS) demand data has been released for June and even though demand measured in TEU Miles is essentially hovering around zero the collapse in demand appears to have halted, and while it may be at a low level, year-on-year demand growth has been positive for three consecutive months. 

In our August freight market report we highlight how the lines are using capacity management to support GRI implementations, with differing degrees of success, as demand levels are not uniform across different deep-sea trades.

Carriers have successfully implemented trans-Pacific general rate increases (GRIs) in April, June, July and August, with an Asia-Europe GRI implemented in August, solely on the basis of current market conditions, which have been tight, as evidenced by reports of cargo rolling in Asia. 

The trans-Atlantic trade has for decades been the container shipping lines most steady and dependable market, before it became the unexpected cash cow for the carriers in 2022, with elevated rates that held for a very long time after the rest of the market had fallen.

However, spot rates from North Europe to the US East Coast (USEC) have fallen over 80% since January, but it’s worth noting that while these rates have dropped rapidly, they could just as easily rise swiftly, and shippers need to take full advantage of some all-time lows, but they need to jump on deals now.

Freight costs on some routes are at their lowest level since 2016, and sustained de-stocking means the volume of supply chain capacity going unused is at its highest level since the global financial crisis of 2008-09, as many companies shift from “just-in-time” supply chains towards more agile models.

Excess capacity in the supply chain, with record-low freight costs presents procurement people and buyers the ideal opportunity to renegotiate terms and secure better deals with their vendors.

However, time is of the essence, to reset the cost base, protect margins and cut costs, because available capacity and the broader stability of today’s logistics and transport operations is a fertile ground to plan tomorrow’s supply chain network. 

Globally there are a huge number of blank sailings and buyers should avoid assuming that rates will stay low, because global supply chains are far more dynamic than once thought.

Shippers should take advantage of the lull, in terms of purchasing transport, because the next market recovery could be round the corner, or a potential supply chain crisis, like the Panama Canal restrictions could be lying in wait. 

The primary sea freight trade-lanes are multi-layered and complex, which is why our sea freight team work closely with colleagues in the US and Asia, to stay ahead of market dynamics and identify opportunities for our customers.

If you have any questions or concerns about the developments outlined in this story, please EMAIL Matt Fullard now for the latest insights and intelligence.