Q4 air freight demand surge and capacity constraints

October marked the start of the traditional shipping peak following China’s Golden Week holiday, with rising eCommerce activity and new electronics launches driving up demand and rates across Asia.

Although economic forecasts suggest a potential slowdown, airfreight demand within Asia and on on major routes to the US and Europe remains resilient, with November expected to be the busiest month of 2024.

Limited intra-Asia capacity, is being squeezed further as airlines prioritise long-haul freight with higher revenue potential. In northern China, shipments from Tianjin to Europe and the US are facing backlogs, and shippers are advised to book well in advance. Southern China is also seeing a rise in eCommerce shipments ahead of major holiday sales events, creating limited space and higher rates. Electronics shipments from East China have further congested the market, with airlines cancelling special rates for large shipments from Hong Kong, where flights to Singapore and Taipei are particularly busy.

Across other Asia Pacific regions, demand from South Korean is contributing to space constraints to the US, expected to last through December. Vietnam’s peak season is pushing through factory orders to meet Q4 deadlines, tightening capacity, and Singapore is facing similar challenges, with rates rising due to high demand for long-haul shipments.

Seasonal trends keep rates high
Year-end holiday activity, labour shortages, and rising global oil prices all contribute to capacity challenges and cost increases. Seasonal travel shifts, a strong US dollar, and high demand for eCommerce are also driving rate increases.

In the Philippines, air capacity remains stable, but securing space for long-haul routes remains challenging. Thailand, too, is experiencing space shortages for US-bound exports, while ad hoc rates out of Asia are climbing towards express rate levels as peak season continues.

Mexico’s air market is also seeing significant activity, with charters from major Chinese cities arriving in Mexico’s Felipe Angeles International Airport. Meanwhile, India’s Diwali festival, running until early November, is likely to boost shipments of electronics, apparel, and festive items, tightening both air and ocean freight capacity on popular routes.

As these seasonal and economic factors continue to drive demand through Q4, shippers should anticipate ongoing capacity constraints and elevated rates across the Asia Pacific region, with early bookings essential to securing space for long-haul shipments.

For urgent, high-value, or sensitive shipments, we offer a variety of airfreight, charter, and sea/air solutions. Our block space agreements (BSA) and capacity purchase agreements (CPA) ensure access to space on the busiest routes. Whether your cargo is large or small, we have highly competitive rate and service options to meet your deadlines and budget.

EMAIL Matt Fullard for insights, competitive pricing, and expert advice on navigating the air freight market during this critical time.