North American supply chains face labour unrest and tariff turbulence

North American shippers currently face a storm of challenges that threaten to reshape trade flows and logistics costs on both sides of the Atlantic, with escalating port labour unrest and potential tariff hikes after the election of President Donald Trump.

One of the most immediate concerns is ongoing labour unrest, with Canadian and US port workers engaged in strike actions and contract negotiations, which have severely disrupted port operations.

Canada
On Canada’s west coast, a strike by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) has paralysed major ports like Vancouver and Prince Rupert, crucial points for Canadian imports and exports. Meanwhile, the Canadian east coast is also feeling the pressure, with blockades at Montreal’s Termont terminals over proposed automation that could threaten longshore jobs.

These disruptions are leading to increased transportation costs from Vancouver and delays across Canada’s inland logistics network. With both coasts affected, Canadian shippers are increasingly forced to divert freight to US west coast ports, where the congestion is now building up. This has a cascading impact on US ports, particularly Seattle, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Long Beach, where backlogs could persist well into the new year.

US east and Gulf coast
The situation on the US east coast and Gulf ports is also tense. The recent three-day strike in October signalled deeper issues within the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), which, despite a provisional wage agreement, still faces substantial unresolved contract negotiations on issues such as automation, job rules, and royalties. The deadline for a full contract resolution looms in January 2025, and the prospect of further disruptions has prompted shippers to consider front-loading cargo to avoid potential capacity issues. This early influx of shipments will likely increase strain on port capacity, particularly on the Asia to US East Coast route, where the recent strike already led to a temporary 17% dip in trans-Pacific volumes.

Tariff threats could drive further disruptions
With a January inauguration approaching, it remains to be seen whether President Trump will act on his stated aim of imposing substantial tariffs on international trade. Trump has shown strong enthusiasm for tariffs, famously calling them “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” His proposed measures include tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 20% on goods from other nations.

If implemented, these tariffs could significantly alter the US’ role in global trade, with economists forecasting a potential reduction in its global trade share from 21% to just 9% by 2028. Such tariffs could have drastic effects on trading partners, inclusive of China, the UK and the EU, with each potentially losing significant access to the US’ domestic market. In response, the EU has reportedly prepared a contingency tariff plan, though the UK, favouring free trade, has signalled it would avoid retaliatory measures.

Anticipation of these tariffs is extremely likely to affect trade flows, with importers expediting shipments ahead of January’s inauguration, triggering a surge in cargo that could rival the traditional pre-Lunar New Year peak.

A turbulent road ahead for resilient supply chains
The overlapping challenges of labour strife and potential tariff increases underscore the need for resilience in supply chains. For companies that depend on North American and trans-Atlantic trade routes, strategic planning and flexible logistics solutions will be essential. Ports affected by strikes may not offer reliable throughput, which is why we are continuously exploring alternative routes and entry points for our customers.

As these issues continue to unfold, the North American sea freight landscape appears set for a difficult period. Careful planning, proactive communication, and diverse routing strategies will be crucial to navigating the turbulent months ahead.

To learn how we can insulate your supply chain from potential disruptions and build resilience to protect it from future disruption please EMAIL Matt Fullard.