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The transpacific freight market remains split between a softening ocean freight sector grappling with falling rates and excess capacity, and a tightening air freight market driven by shifting production patterns and tariff-related pressures.
With the 9 July deadline for the return of suspended US tariffs now passed, the landscape has shifted again. While ocean rates have continued to soften following the end of front-loading activity, air cargo has seen short-term spikes as shippers rushed goods ahead of the cutoff. Yet looking ahead, both sectors face mounting headwinds.
Sea Freight Market Correction
Ocean freight rates on the transpacific trade have declined sharply in recent weeks, with westbound rates from Asia to the US falling by as much as 40% over a fortnight. The drop reflects a rapid softening in demand following the early-June rush to front-load shipments before tariffs were reinstated.
Despite these declines, rates remain above pre-surge levels, indicating lingering inflationary pressure. With the tariff deadline now behind us, the sea freight market is entering a correction phase. Carriers are responding by blanking sailings, cutting services, and adjusting capacity in an effort to rebalance supply with lower demand.
Elsewhere, service reliability has improved on other major lanes, such as Asia–Europe and transatlantic, amplifying the sense of overcapacity on transpacific routes.
Air Freight: Deadline-Driven Surge, Uncertain Outlook
In contrast, transpacific air freight saw a surge in demand through late June and early July as shippers rushed to move goods before the 9 July deadline (which is enshrined in law). This spike was most evident out of South-east Asia and Taiwan, where capacity tightened and rates rose sharply in percentage terms.
Interestingly, China saw more subdued growth, particularly in eCommerce flows, as production shifts to other hubs gained momentum. Taiwan has emerged as a critical origin point, particularly for AI server components bound for US tech firms, reflecting wider “China-plus-one” diversification strategies aimed at mitigating tariff exposure.
Despite the temporary lift, the outlook for the second half of 2025 is more challenging. Ongoing tariff and de minimis issues, combined with reshoring trends and unpredictable geopolitical developments, are clouding forecasts. Although global air cargo demand grew by 3% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, the industry may struggle to sustain that pace in the months ahead.
Adding to the strain, recent Middle East airspace disruptions have squeezed wide-body aircraft availability, further tightening capacity on key lanes.
Unpredictable Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
With ocean freight recalibrating after the tariff-driven surge and air freight confronting short-term congestion and longer-term uncertainty, the transpacific outlook remains volatile. Shippers are grappling with compressed shipment cycles, distorted inventory flows, and increasingly unreliable seasonal patterns.
This divergence underscores a key point: flexibility, agility, and visibility are now essential to navigating global supply chains. Whether planning long-term strategies or reacting to near-term shifts, shippers must stay alert, adaptable, and informed as the second half of the year unfolds.
Whether you’re recalibrating ocean freight plans or seeking ways to manage tariff-driven air freight pressures, Noatum Logistics provides the insight, flexibility, and global reach to keep your supply chain moving.
Explore our Air Freight and Ocean Freight solutions – and discover how we can help you respond faster, manage risk, and stay in control.
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