Global Freight Markets Reset — November 2025 Market Report

Global supply chains are entering the final stretch of 2025 with a mix of stabilisation, renewed pressure points and emerging policy shifts that are already reshaping flows across continents.

Noatum Logistics’ November 2025 Market Report reveals a freight environment that looks calmer on the surface, but where the underlying currents, from carrier behaviour to inventory cycles and tariff resets, are rapidly changing the outlook for early 2026.

Across several key markets, vessel utilisation is recovering, seasonal restocking is lifting volumes, and reliability has returned to levels not seen since before the pandemic. Yet the indicators underpinning these improvements remain fragile. The report highlights rising caution among shippers, pockets of congestion in Europe, volatile pre-holiday rate behaviour, and the structural challenges in road freight that continue to squeeze margins despite relatively stable demand.

The temporary suspension of reciprocal US–China port fees, alongside a pause on selected tariffs and China’s decision to lift rare-earth export controls, offers short-term relief to transpacific carriers and exporters. But the impact could prove uneven, with some lanes seeing a brief demand lift, while others face continued uncertainty.

In Europe, the market is showing signs of measured resilience. Western Mediterranean hubs have strengthened after earlier bottlenecks, supported by expanded feeder connectivity and improved hinterland links. Schedule reliability has stabilised at 65–70%, and carriers are maintaining unprecedented discipline through loop adjustments and controlled blank sailings.

Across Asia, early-October softness quickly gave way to a sharp rebound as post-Golden Week demand returned. Air cargo also regained momentum after the holidays, with tonnage rising and regional growth led by Asia–Europe and intra-Asia flows. Yet the transpacific lane continues to lag, pulled down by eCommerce headwinds and the structural reset triggered by changes to US tariff policy.

Overland markets tell a similarly mixed story. Rail, meanwhile, continues its long-term upward trend, buoyed by investment in intermodal infrastructure and major new corridor developments, expected to materially shift freight patterns in the Middle East.

What is clear across all regions is that Q4 dynamics will set the tone for 2026. Carrier discipline, geopolitical triggers, restocking cycles and regulatory change are converging at the same moment, creating conditions where market sentiment can shift quickly.

The November edition of Noatum Logistics’ Global Market Report provides the full picture: integrated analysis across global ocean, air, road and rail markets; regional deep-dives; and the latest insights on capacity, reliability, rate behaviour and emerging policy impacts.

Download the full Report to see what’s shaping the weeks ahead — and what to prepare for as we move into 2026.