Why container freight rates may stay higher for longer

Container shipping rates have climb throughout 2026, and while some lanes have softened, market indicators suggest they could remain elevated for longer than many expected, despite a significant wave of new vessel deliveries scheduled from 2027. 

For much of the past year, many businesses have assumed today’s elevated freight rates would prove temporary. The expectation has been that once disruption in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz eased, shipping capacity would return to normal and freight rates would begin to fall.

That remains the longer-term outlook. However, today’s market is being supported by more than geopolitical disruption alone.

This matters because many procurement and supply chain teams are budgeting on the assumption that freight costs will gradually return to pre-disruption levels. If the current market is being driven by longer-term changes in global trade as well as disruption, businesses could face higher transport costs for considerably longer than anticipated.

Freight rates have risen sharply since the spring, with the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index increasing by around 150%. Shipping lines are reporting stronger financial results, vessel charter costs remain high and carriers continue to operate with very little spare capacity.

Initially, much of this was attributed to geopolitical disruption. Vessels avoiding the Red Sea have been forced onto much longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, reducing the number of ships available for normal trading patterns. More recently, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has added further pressure.

However, disruption is only part of the story.

Demand remains stronger than expected

If today’s market was being driven purely by temporary disruption, global freight demand itself would be relatively weak. Instead, the latest market data points in the opposite direction.

Global container volumes have returned to growth, increasing by around 4% year-on-year, while traffic on the two largest east-west trades has been particularly strong. Volumes from Asia to Europe have risen by around 12%, with Asia to North America increasing by approximately 11%.

Trade between Asia and both Europe and North America remains healthy, while rapidly expanding markets across Africa and Latin America are absorbing additional shipping capacity.

Perhaps more importantly, the composition of global trade is changing.

Rather than being driven solely by retailers bringing stock forward ahead of tariff changes, increasing volumes are now linked to long-term investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centres, batteries, electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. These investments are expected to continue over several years, making the additional freight demand far more durable than a short-term surge in consumer imports.

Capacity remains under pressure

Although shipping lines have ordered significant numbers of new vessels, very few ships are currently sitting idle.

Longer voyage distances, ongoing congestion at major ports and continued disruption across key trade routes mean much of the global fleet remains fully employed.

Even where tensions have eased, normal operating patterns have not fully returned. Transit through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered only partially, while most container carriers continue to avoid the Red Sea altogether.

As a result, effective capacity remains considerably tighter than headline fleet numbers might suggest.

Air freight is sending the same signal

If higher ocean freight rates were simply the result of disruption at sea, you might expect air freight markets to have softened as conditions gradually stabilised.

Instead, air freight rates have also strengthened since late Q1.

Two transport modes with very different operating characteristics are showing the same trend. That suggests underlying global demand for moving goods remains strong, rather than the market being driven solely by disruption on a single trade route.

Structural factors continue to support the market

Looking ahead to the remainder of the year, several factors continue to support freight rates.

Congestion at major ports remains close to a four-year high, reducing the number of voyages carriers can complete. At the same time, very little container shipping capacity is sitting idle, indicating that almost every available vessel is already deployed.

Although some shipping lines have begun testing limited returns through the Suez Canal, these remain selective rather than signalling a widespread return to pre-crisis operating patterns.

Together, these factors suggest capacity is likely to remain constrained throughout the traditional peak season, supporting freight rates even if geopolitical tensions ease.

What happens next?

This does not mean freight rates will continue rising indefinitely.

A substantial number of new container ships are scheduled for delivery over the next two to three years, which should eventually improve capacity and place downward pressure on rates.

However, that is a medium-term issue.

For the remainder of 2026, the combination of resilient global demand, constrained capacity, persistent port congestion and geopolitical uncertainty suggests freight rates are likely to remain firmer than many businesses expected earlier this year.

Rather than planning for a rapid return to pre-disruption pricing, shippers should prepare for a market where freight costs remain relatively elevated through the peak season and potentially beyond.

What this means for your business

For shippers, the market is no longer being driven by a single event.

Even if disruption in the Middle East eases, strong underlying demand, continued congestion and longer vessel deployment are likely to keep effective shipping capacity tighter than normal.

Businesses should therefore consider:

• Securing bookings earlier, particularly for peak season shipments.
• Building higher freight costs into budgeting and landed-cost calculations.
• Considering longer-term contracts or volume commitments where appropriate to reduce exposure to spot market volatility.
• Monitoring demand trends, congestion levels and geopolitical developments, as all three are now influencing freight costs.

The large wave of vessel deliveries expected from 2027 still has the potential to rebalance supply and demand. However, the evidence today suggests businesses should prepare for a tighter and more expensive freight market over the next 12 to 18 months, rather than expecting a rapid return to the oversupply seen in 2023.

Preparing your supply chain for whatever lies ahead

Whether you’re reviewing sourcing strategies, budgeting for higher transport costs or planning peak season shipments, Noatum Logistics can help you build a more resilient supply chain with reliable capacity, flexible routing options and tailored ocean freight solutions backed by a global network. 

Speak to our specialists about developing a shipping strategy that’s right for your business.