How U.S. Tariffs Are Influencing Ocean Freight Trends

Changes in U.S. trade policy are introducing new challenges for global container shipping, prompting many supply chain stakeholders to re-evaluate their sourcing and freight strategies.

The recently announced measures impose significant duties on a broad spectrum of Chinese-origin goods, with few exceptions beyond some high-value electronics that usually move by air. Other manufacturing hubs across Asia such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia face a temporary 10% tariff rate until 9 July, after which higher “reciprocal” rates will apply, ranging from 36% to 49%.

These developments have triggered a short-term shift in sourcing patterns, with some businesses looking to accelerate shipments from alternative locations. However, with China accounting for a substantial portion of transpacific volumes (over 750,000 TEU were shipped to the U.S. from China in February alone) it is unlikely that other regions will be able to fully offset any sustained decline in Chinese exports.

The timing of these policy updates coincides with the traditional contracting season in ocean freight, when many annual agreements are typically finalised. In the current environment, some BCO shippers are adopting a more flexible approach, opting to delay contract commitments or favouring shorter-term arrangements as they assess the impact of tariffs on future volumes.

This shift is contributing to a more prominent role for the spot market, as BCO’s prefer to take market rates instead of committing to contracted prices for the year ahead, particularly for cargoes that fall outside long-term planning cycles or are subject to new regulatory conditions. While some industry observers have speculated about the emergence of fallback contracts, BCOs focused on managing the present uncertainty and maintaining service continuity could be in for a will ride on the spot market rollercoaster.

Policy Proposals and Industry Response
Among the proposals under consideration by President Trump’s administration is a fee of $1.5 million per port call for vessels built in China. Should such a policy be implemented, it could influence port rotation decisions and network planning, potentially leading to service adjustments and capacity reallocation. In turn, this may affect port congestion levels and inland logistics, particularly at gateways with limited flexibility.

Maintaining efficiency across global container supply chains depends on reliable vessel flows and steady inland cargo movement. While the industry has shown resilience through recent disruptions, continued policy developments may lead to further realignment of service structures and commercial models.

As trade conditions continue to evolve, supply chain adaptability is more important than ever. Our team is actively supporting clients in evaluating the impact of new tariffs and identifying practical, strategic responses—from re-routing and sourcing alternatives to optimising freight procurement models.

If you’re reassessing your transpacific strategy or seeking clarity on how these changes could affect your operations, we’re here to help. Get in touch to explore tailored solutions designed to keep your supply chain agile, cost-effective, and future-ready.