Global port congestion is worsening, even as shipping performance appears to improve

Container shipping networks are under increasing strain, but the industry’s headline performance data is no longer telling the whole story.

On paper, schedule reliability has improved, average delays have stabilised and more vessels are arriving “on time” than at any point since the pandemic. Yet behind those encouraging figures, congestion continues to build across many of the world’s busiest ports, with more container ships waiting at anchor than at any time in the past four years.

The explanation lies in the way shipping lines have adapted their schedules. Rather than eliminating delays, carriers have absorbed much of the disruption into longer published transit times. The result is that vessels can arrive “on schedule” while customers still experience longer end-to-end journeys.

For importers and exporters, understanding what is happening behind the published schedules has become increasingly important when planning inventory, production and customer deliveries.

The numbers no longer reflect the operational reality

Following the disruption caused by Red Sea diversions, carriers have progressively lengthened service rotations to create greater flexibility within their networks.

Additional time built into voyages allows ships to recover delays between ports, improving published schedule reliability even though congestion, waiting times and operational disruption remain.

This has led to a sharp increase in so-called “negative delays”, where vessels arrive ahead of their revised schedules. Compared with pre-pandemic trading conditions, the proportion of these early arrivals has more than tripled, significantly improving industry performance statistics.

However, this does not necessarily mean cargo is moving faster.

Ships may still spend days waiting for a berth, experience slower terminal operations or encounter inland transport bottlenecks. Much of that delay has simply been incorporated into longer advertised transit times rather than appearing in conventional performance metrics.

Pressure is building across major container hubs

Operational conditions remain challenging throughout the global liner network.

More than 10% of the world’s container fleet is currently waiting outside ports, representing the highest level of congestion recorded in four years.

Asia continues to experience the greatest pressure, where strong export demand, adverse weather and vessel bunching are affecting terminal productivity across several major gateways.

China’s leading container ports continue to report berth delays, while key transhipment hubs including Singapore, Colombo and Busan are managing waves of vessels arriving outside their planned windows.

Because container shipping operates as an interconnected network, disruption rarely remains isolated. Delays at one port often force carriers to adjust subsequent rotations, omit port calls, shorten cargo operations or roll containers onto later sailings to recover schedules, creating knock-on effects across multiple trade lanes.

India demonstrates how local disruption becomes a global issue

Recent events at Jawaharlal Nehru Port (Nhava Sheva) illustrate how quickly regional operational challenges can ripple through international supply chains.

Heavy monsoon rainfall, flooding and severe road congestion have disrupted cargo flows between container freight stations and terminals. High winds have periodically restricted port operations, while a separate terminal incident has further reduced berth productivity.

The consequences extend well beyond India’s coastline.

Longer vessel turnaround times reduce effective capacity, equipment becomes harder to reposition and pressure increases on services connecting India with Europe and North America. Exporters may therefore face longer booking lead times, greater rollover risk and reduced flexibility during periods of strong demand.

Planning matters more than headline statistics

Noatum Logistics look beyond published schedule reliability when planning international shipments. Understanding where congestion is developing, how carriers are adjusting their networks and which trade lanes face the greatest operational pressure makes a significant difference to effective inventory planning, production timing and delivery scheduling.

Whether you’re importing, exporting or reviewing your international supply chain, our ocean freight specialists can help identify opportunities to improve resilience, enhance service performance and control transport costs in an increasingly complex shipping market.