Asia–Europe Sea Freight: Capacity Cuts, Rising Rates and a Tightening Market

Asia–Europe ocean freight markets are closing out the year with firm upward pressure on rates, driven by aggressive capacity management and a late surge in seasonal demand.

Since early October, carriers have applied rate increases at roughly fortnightly intervals, and while not all have fully landed, the general trend remains upward. Spot prices on both North Europe and Mediterranean routes have risen sharply since the start of Q4, supported by widespread blank sailings and tightening space.

Capacity withdrawals intensify

Carriers have strategically withdrawn substantial capacity throughout the autumn to underpin higher pricing during tender season. On Asia–North Europe, available weekly capacity decreased by almost one-fifth from mid-September to early November. In October alone, carriers removed nearly one-quarter of scheduled slots through blank sailings,and announced cancellations for November reached almost half that level before further additions. Mediterranean services saw a similar pattern, with tens of thousands of TEUs withdrawn each month as operators attempted to keep supply in check.

Despite these cuts, the overall pool of vessels continues to expand. After several years of record deliveries and minimal scrapping, the global order-book now represents close to one-third of the active fleet. More ships are scheduled for delivery in 2027–2029, raising longer-term concerns about persistent overcapacity.

Rates push higher

The cumulative effect of repeated rate increases has lifted Asia–Europe spot levels significantly since October. On North Europe, rates have climbed by more than two-thirds from their early-October baseline, while Mediterranean spot prices have almost doubled over the same period. Some carriers have announced further rises for 1 December, aiming to push prices into higher brackets ahead of annual contract negotiations.

Market indices generally reflect this upward momentum. One major benchmark recorded week-on-week increases of around 8% into North Europe and 6% into the Mediterranean in mid-November. 

Forward bookings and anecdotal activity point to firm demand for export space from Asia through Q4. Shippers are replenishing inventory ahead of a later-than-usual Lunar New Year, bringing forward volumes and tightening allocations on key loops. Several major services have reported full vessels departing Asia, with some carriers already restricting late bookings.

The broader backdrop shows Asia–Europe demand in the first nine months of the year running almost 10% higher year on year. Additional capacity is still coming into service, but the combination of scheduled blankings and a pre-holiday build-up has enabled carriers to maintain rate discipline.

Europe firm, transpacific weak

The strength of Asia–Europe trade contrasts sharply with the transpacific trades, where rates have been sliding despite repeated attempts at general rate increases. Weekly declines of up to 10% have been recorded into both US coasts as additional capacity floods the market and demand softens. With factories slowing for year-end holidays and US consumer sentiment weakening under policy uncertainty, transpacific rates are expected to remain flat or fall further into December.

For Asia–Europe shippers, the near-term outlook remains closely tied to carriers’ ability to manage capacity. Blank sailings are likely to continue into January, even as deployed capacity reaches record highs on both North Europe and Mediterranean routes. A strong pre-Lunar New Year push may help sustain spot levels into early 2026, but the underlying structural challenge remains: vessel supply continues to grow at a pace that far outstrips demand.

For now, tightened space, higher prices and increasing schedule disruption define the trade. Whether these conditions persist into the new contract cycle will depend on both seasonal demand and how aggressively carriers continue to remove capacity from service.

Speak to Noatum Logistics for clear guidance, accurate rate planning and reliable space protection through a volatile Asia–Europe market. 

Our teams in Asia and Europe can help you secure capacity, optimise routings and keep your supply chain moving through peak season and into 2026.