Analysis: Why Container Shipping Will Stay Resilient in 2026

Many forecasters are anticipating a sharp fall in ocean freight rates as global trade slows in 2026, and while volumes are likely to soften, the reality is that container shipping is unlikely to slip into recession, which means a significant drop in pricing is not on the horizon.

Trade growth is slowing, not reversing. Global container volumes expanded by 6.6% in 2024 and a further 4.5% in the first half of 2025. Even with an expected cyclical slowdown, trade growth in 2026 is forecast at around 1.7%. That is a moderation, not a contraction. In short: demand remains sufficient to support carriers, and a deep rate decline looks unlikely.

Why the sector remains resilient:

• Diversified cargo mix: Containers carry everything from fashion and consumer goods to chemicals and industrial parts, cushioning demand when individual sectors weaken.
• China’s export drive: To hit growth targets, Beijing has doubled down on manufacturing and exports, pushing competitively priced goods into global markets and keeping containers full.
• Tariffs remain contained: US tariffs are a headwind but affect a limited share of world trade. Most “everyday” containerised products continue to move freely.
• Capacity discipline: Carriers now manage supply more aggressively, using blank sailings, slow steaming, and alliance coordination to stabilise markets.
• Cyclical rebound: Previous soft patches in container trade have been temporary. Once the global economy stabilises, volumes typically recover quickly.

While risks remain, most protectionist measures are focused on strategic goods rather than the everyday items that dominate containerised trade. Unless the world shifts dramatically towards broad tariff regimes, container shipping looks better insulated from long-term decline than often assumed.

What this means for shippers
Shippers hoping for ultra-low freight rates should prepare for disappointment. While spot prices will remain volatile, structural resilience and active capacity management suggest rates will stabilise above the rock-bottom levels seen in past downturns.

How to respond:

• Budget conservatively: Expect short-term dips but avoid assuming prolonged low-rate conditions.
• Review contracts: Blend fixed and spot exposure to balance stability and opportunity.
• Plan for volatility: Rates may fluctuate around holidays, tariff deadlines, or capacity adjustments, and particularly on Asia-linked trades.
• Strengthen partnerships: Working closely with your forwarder and carriers ensures earlier visibility of changes and access to reliable space.

Container shipping is slowing, not shrinking. The sector’s diversity, China’s export strength, and tighter carrier capacity management all point to continued resilience. Shippers should plan for fluctuating but sustainable rates — not the decline some expect.

For tailored advice on freight procurement strategies and managing rate volatility, contact our team today.