Airfreight enters 2026 on firmer ground

As 2026 begins, air freight markets are carrying more momentum than many expected after a volatile year. Rather than a sharp post-peak correction, demand on key Asia–Europe and Asia–U.S. lanes has remained resilient, supported by strong export activity across Asia Pacific.

End-of-year shipping programmes and late-cycle demand helped keep capacity tight through December, particularly out of major Asian hubs. While global air cargo volumes are no longer growing at the exceptional pace seen earlier in the cycle, pricing and utilisation on core east–west lanes have held up well.

Cargo volumes from Asia Pacific origins remained robust through November and into December, with carriers reporting solid year-on-year growth. Manufacturers and distributors continued to pull shipments forward to meet year-end deadlines, sustaining international tonnage across key gateways.

Rates stay elevated on key east–west lanes

Average spot rates on Asia–Europe and transpacific routes climbed through December as peak-season pressures built – up 8.8% into Europe and 6.7% to the U.S. month-on-month (MoM). Pricing out of hubs such as Hong Kong remained notably higher than earlier in the year, driven by a combination of seasonal demand and disciplined capacity management by airlines.

While global average rates are below the extreme highs of 2024, December data showed a clear month-on-month uptick, led by Asia Pacific-origin traffic. This underlines that, even as markets move beyond peak season, residual tightness can persist when demand and capacity remain closely balanced.

Lane-by-lane dynamics shape early-2026 conditions

On Asia-U.S. and Asia–Europe lanes, the market is now transitioning rather than resetting. Demand is gradually normalising, but not collapsing, and airlines continue to adjust capacity to protect yields. Trade policy uncertainty, supply-chain reconfiguration and evolving manufacturing footprints across Southeast Asia are all influencing performance on a lane-specific basis.

Transpacific traffic has shown particularly varied momentum, reflecting diversified sourcing strategies and shifting production locations. Europe-bound volumes, meanwhile, continue to see steady interest for high-priority and time-sensitive cargo.

What this means for shippers

• Capacity and pricing remain sensitive: Despite the peak season ending, tight conditions on Asia-linked lanes may extend into early Q1. Early booking remains important to secure space and manage rate exposure.
• Trade-lane differences matter: Conditions vary significantly by origin and destination, making lane-specific planning more important than broad market assumptions.
• Ongoing adjustment ahead: As carriers refine capacity and pricing strategies, availability and spot rates may fluctuate in the opening months of 2026.

As air freight markets remain firm on critical Asia–Europe and transpacific routes, proactive planning will be essential. Noatum Logistics works closely with airline partners across Asia, Europe and the United States to secure capacity, manage pricing risk and identify the most reliable routing options.

Contact our team to review upcoming Q1 shipments, secure space early and ensure your air freight supply chain remains resilient as market conditions continue to evolve.