Air freight’s resilience outpaces disruption

Global volumes remain robust, but the underlying story is far more complex. Airlines are restoring networks disrupted by regional tensions, while simultaneously repositioning aircraft to meet changing trade flows, humanitarian demands, and evolving cargo priorities. The result is a market that appears stable on the surface, yet remains highly reactive beneath.

Worldwide cargo volumes finished June 9% higher than a year earlier, extending the steady expansion seen throughout the first half of 2026. Although capacity has recovered significantly since the disruption caused by conflict in the Middle East, airlines continue to operate with little spare capacity, helping keep freight rates well above last year’s levels.

Rather than returning to pre-disruption conditions, the market has entered a new phase where structural demand, constrained capacity and evolving trade flows continue to support a robust air cargo sector.

Strong demand continues to underpin the market

While the recent easing of hostilities in the Middle East has allowed many airlines to restore services, operational challenges remain. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency has extended guidance advising airlines to avoid Iranian, Iraqi and Lebanese airspace until the end of August, meaning many Europe-Asia services continue to operate longer routings that increase flight times, fuel consumption and operating costs.

Despite these constraints, global air cargo capacity has now recovered to slightly above pre-conflict levels, with Middle East capacity continuing to improve as airlines restore schedules. However, carriers remain cautious as security assessments, insurance requirements and regulatory guidance continue to influence network planning.

One of the most significant developments is the changing nature of global air cargo demand.

WorldACD data shows shipments from Taiwan increasing, up by 20% over the past three weeks, reflecting continued exports of AI-related computer equipment. Strong volumes from Taiwan and South Korea continue to offset softer eCommerce traffic on some trade lanes.

Meanwhile, the European Union’s removal of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports has reduced direct parcel movements from Hong Kong to Europe. Traffic on the lane has fallen sharply as retailers adapt to the new customs regime, although previous experience in the United States suggests volumes are likely to recover as supply chains adjust.

Rather than reducing demand, these regulatory changes are expected to accelerate the shift towards larger consolidated shipments and more sophisticated distribution models.

Capacity remains structurally constrained

Although airlines have restored much of the capacity lost during the Middle East disruption, the market remains structurally tight.

The global freighter fleet is still limited, with no meaningful influx of new aircraft in the short term and delays to passenger aircraft deliveries slowing conversion programmes.

This lack of available lift is forcing airlines to be highly selective in how capacity is deployed. Aircraft are being actively shifted between regions in response to demand signals, rather than expanding overall supply.

Recent movements illustrate this dynamic. Capacity has been reduced on Asia–Europe lanes while increasing sharply towards South America, where humanitarian operations following the Venezuela earthquake are driving additional demand. This kind of rapid redeployment underlines both the flexibility of the sector and the lack of spare capacity within it.

As a result, airlines are increasingly investing in new freighters, acquisitions and strategic partnerships to secure future capacity. Rather than competing solely for cargo, carriers are now competing for access to aircraft, highlighting how valuable dedicated freighter capacity has become.

Resilience is becoming the defining feature

The air freight market has successfully absorbed conflict in the Middle East, regulatory changes affecting global eCommerce and rapidly evolving trade patterns without losing momentum.

Instead, demand continues to adapt, capacity remains tightly managed and airlines are reshaping their networks to support higher-value cargo flows.

For businesses relying on international air freight, the message is increasingly clear. The market is proving remarkably resilient, but securing capacity and maintaining supply chain reliability still depends on forward planning, flexible routing and close collaboration with experienced logistics partners.

As market conditions continue to evolve, reviewing your air freight strategy can help improve resilience, optimise transit times and control transport costs. Whether you need guaranteed capacity, alternative routings or specialist handling for urgent consignments, temperature-controlled cargo or sensitive cargoes, Noatum Logistics’ air freight experts will help you select the right solution for your business.