Transpacific Congestion and Capacity Crunch

The 90-day suspension of US-China tariffs has ignited a sharp spike in transpacific demand, pulling the traditional peak season forward by several months.

US importers are racing to bring in goods before the 14 August deadline, driving rates higher and straining available capacity, particularly on Asia–US West Coast lanes.

Spot rates have surged in response: Shanghai–Los Angeles rose 16%, Shanghai–New York jumped 19%, and the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) recorded its biggest weekly gain of 2025, up 14%.

Carriers, caught off guard after pulling back tonnage in April and May, are reinstating suspended loops, upsizing vessels and reversing blanked sailings. But capacity remains tight, and the system is under growing pressure.

With ships now flooding back into Chinese ports, congestion has intensified rapidly:

• Shanghai and Qingdao: 24–72 hours’ berth waiting time
• Ningbo: 24–36 hours and worsening due to diversions
• Busan (PNIT): up to 72 hours
• Singapore and Yokohama: up to 36 and 24 hours respectively

Carriers are reporting vessel bunching and skipped port calls, while container availability is tightening, especially in Shanghai and Ningbo, where some lines are now allocating boxes based on space and rate commitments.

Adding to the strain is a wave of previously manufactured cargo stored in bonded warehouses, now expected to enter circulation. If released in May, this could lift demand by up to 48% above normal levels, before factoring in further peak season orders.

With rates rising, space tightening, and disruptions spreading, shippers face a challenging start to an already accelerated peak season.

Shipping Policy Revised
The United States Trade Representative (USTR) has finalised a revised plan to impose port fees on Chinese-built containerships calling at US ports. This forms part of a wider initiative, including the reintroduced SHIPS for America Act, aimed at revitalising the US shipbuilding sector and reducing dependence on Chinese maritime infrastructure.

Although less severe than the original February proposal, which threatened charges of up to $1.5 million per port call and an industry-wide cost of $24 billion, the updated plan will still add approximately $1 million per voyage. These added costs are expected to have knock-on effects throughout global supply chains.

Under the revised scheme, carriers will be charged only once per US rotation, rather than at every port call. Most non-Chinese operators are likely to redeploy tonnage to avoid the fees, replacing Chinese-built vessels on US routes with ships built in South Korea or Japan.

However, Chinese carriers face the greatest impact. With fewer options to reroute their fleets, they may rely more heavily on alliance partners, potentially distorting market competition and reducing capacity flexibility across key transpacific lanes.

As global trade policy continues to shift, the ability to respond quickly and strategically has never been more critical. Noatum Logistics is working closely with customers to assess the real-world impact of new US tariffs, adapt routing strategies, and maintain freight resilience in a tightening market.

Whether you’re revisiting your transpacific plans, rebalancing supplier networks, or simply trying to secure space at the right cost, our team is here to support you. Get in touch today to explore practical, tailored solutions that keep your supply chain moving efficiently and competitively.