Record-breaking global trade creating momentum for shippers

Global trade is set to reach a new high in 2025, with the combined value of goods and services on track to exceed $35 trillion for the first time. Growth through the second half of the year has remained resilient, adding an estimated $2.2 trillion compared with 2024 and underlining the continued importance of well-managed, internationally connected supply chains.

Goods trade has contributed the largest share of that increase, while services trade has expanded even faster in percentage terms. According to UN Trade and Development, growth should remain positive into the final quarter of the year, although at a more moderate pace. Importantly for shippers, price pressures are easing, meaning that late-year trade growth is being driven more by volumes than inflation.

Looking ahead in 2026, the pace of expansion is expected to slow as global economic growth cools and cost pressures persist. However, the underlying picture remains constructive, with trade flows continuing to adapt rather than retreat.

Developing markets drive momentum

Trade between developing economies has outperformed the global average, expanding by around 8% over the past four quarters. This growth highlights the increasing depth and resilience of South trade lanes, even as some economies continue to manage higher debt burdens.

Regionally, East Asia has been the standout performer. Exports grew by 9% over the past year, supported by strong intra-regional trade. South America also recorded solid gains within the region, while Africa saw notable growth in imports and steady export expansion, reflecting improving demand and diversification.

Europe and North America posted more moderate results. European trade continued to grow through the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace, while North America saw stronger import growth offset by softer exports in the short term. Overall, both regions remained net contributors to global trade expansion over the year.

Manufacturing and agriculture lead sector growth

Manufacturing continues to anchor global trade performance. The sector expanded strongly in the third quarter and over the past year, with electronics leading growth as demand linked to AI and digital infrastructure accelerated. This trend reinforces the importance of reliable capacity and time-sensitive logistics for high-value cargo.

Agricultural trade also delivered a strong showing, with cereals, fruit and vegetables, and oilseeds all recording robust gains. These flows highlight renewed opportunities across bulk, breakbulk and containerised agricultural supply chains.

By contrast, automotive trade remained subdued. Overall volumes declined, with growth concentrated in hybrid vehicles, while trade in combustion-engine and electric vehicles softened. Commodity trade showed mixed results, with iron and steel rebounding sharply but natural-resource trade constrained by lower energy prices.

Trade patterns continue to evolve

Global trade imbalances have begun to stabilise, though they remain elevated. Major economies have seen modest improvements compared with last year, signaling gradual rebalancing rather than abrupt change.

At the same time, trade patterns continue to adjust. Near-shoring and closer alignment between trading partners strengthened again in the second half of 2025, while a growing share of global trade flowed through a smaller group of major economies. For shippers, this reinforces the value of flexible routing, diversified sourcing and strong regional expertise.

As global trade reaches new highs and supply chains continue to evolve, Noatum Logistics helps shippers turn opportunity into advantage. 

From optimising trade lanes and managing capacity to providing end-to-end visibility across goods and services flows, our teams support confident, resilient international trade. 

Speak to Noatum Logistics to explore how we can help you plan for growth and navigate the year ahead with certainty.