Lunar New Year situation, timelines and resilience planning

The Lunar New Year (LNY) remains one of the most structurally dynamic events in the shipping calendar. As factories across China and parts of Southeast Asia slow or close, export volumes typically spike before and fall sharply. Carriers respond by adding and withdrawing capacity to protect utilisation.

While carriers have maintained relative pricing stability through disciplined capacity management, this stability is fragile. The combination of factory shutdowns, front-loaded demand and aggressive blank sailing strategies means disruption risk is elevated well beyond the holiday itself.

For ocean shippers, the Lunar New Year should be viewed not as a short pause, but as a six-to-eight-week period of heightened volatility affecting space availability, schedules and rates.

Typical impacts include:

• Short-notice blank sailings and service suspensions.
• Rolled or delayed cargo on both sides of the holiday.
• Sudden rate movements as services restart.
• Congestion at origin and destination ports as volumes rebound.

Key dates and activity windows

Lunar New Year officially begins on 17 February 2026, with the public holiday running from 15–23 February. However, the operational impact starts much earlier and lasts considerably longer.

Late January – early February
Production slows two to three weeks ahead of the holiday, with export volumes pulled forward. Vessels fill quickly and rollover risk increases as available sailings reduce.

Mid-February – early March
Factories and logistics operations close or operate at reduced capacity for two to four weeks. Backlogs build and carriers blank sailings aggressively.

Mid-March onwards
Networks gradually normalise, often with residual congestion as deferred cargo moves simultaneously.

For many importers, this disruption window overlaps with Valentine’s Day, Easter and spring retail launches, increasing the commercial impact of delays.

Price and capacity volatility heading into LNY

Ocean freight markets are entering LNY in a more complex position than in previous years. Strong late-cycle demand, early booking activity and tighter capacity control are driving volatility earlier in the season.

Carriers report solid bookings through December and into January, with expectations that demand could remain firm into February. This has already supported a new round of pricing actions:

• Peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher FAK levels implemented from early January.
• Asia–Europe spot rates rising steadily through late Q4.
• Strong underlying volumes, with Asia–Europe traffic growing year-on-year.

At the same time, carriers are front-loading capacity into late Q4 and early Q1, before planning sharp withdrawals as CNY the Lunar New Year approaches. This creates short bursts of intense volume flow followed by sudden capacity gaps, increasing the risk of congestion, missed cut-offs and rolled cargo.

Key trade-lane patterns include:

• Asia–North Europe: The largest expansion in absolute terms, with capacity projected to surge nearly 50% above baseline, reflecting aggressive front-loading to buffer European inventories ahead of CNY shutdowns.
• Asia–Mediterranean: The biggest percentage increase, with peak capacity more than 60% above baseline, highlighting heightened volatility on secondary trades as well as core lanes.
• Asia–North America West Coast: A late-season capacity spike of around 30%, followed by a sharp withdrawal in the final weeks before CNY, leaving limited opportunity to rebook before factory closures.
• Asia–North America East Coast: Capacity remains elevated throughout the pre-CNY window, peaking around 25% above baseline, before expected post-holiday adjustments.

While rates remain relatively steady heading into CNY, post-holiday pricing is likely to be more volatile, particularly if demand rebounds faster than carriers reinstate withdrawn capacity.

Practical steps to maintain supply chain resilience

Proactive planning remains the most effective way to reduce exposure during the holiday. Noatum Logistics recommends that ocean shippers focus on the following actions:

Lock in space early

Lunar New Year sailings fill quickly as blank sailings reduce available departures. Securing space two to three weeks earlier than normal significantly lowers rollover risk.

Build schedule flexibility

Avoid reliance on a single sailing or carrier. Wider departure windows, alternative routings and contingency options improve resilience when schedules change at short notice.

Review inventory buffers

Post-holiday restarts often trigger congestion as backlogged cargo moves together. Modest increases in safety stock can offset unpredictable transit times in Q1.

Balance spot exposure

A blended approach helps protect access to guaranteed space while retaining flexibility if post-holiday market conditions soften unevenly.

Strengthen end-to-end communication

Early coordination between suppliers, exporters, importers and 3PL helps identify blank-sailing and cut-off risks before cargo reaches the port.

Staying ahead of LNY disruption

Navigating the Lunar New Year holiday in an unsettled freight market requires real-time visibility, flexible routing and proactive decision-making. The risk for shippers is not confined to the holiday itself, but to the broader window around it, when capacity, schedules and pricing are most fluid.

Noatum Logistics works closely with carriers and shippers to secure capacity, manage blank-sailing risk and adapt ocean freight strategies as market conditions evolve, helping supply chains stay resilient, rather than reactive.