Europe Gains as China’s Air Cargo Flows Pivot Away from the US

China’s airfreight market is undergoing a fundamental realignment, with trade shifting away from the US and increasingly favouring Europe.

Recent trade policies in Washington, including tighter tariff measures and changes to de minimis rules, are driving carriers to adjust capacity and routing strategies.

In August, cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe rose by 11% compared with last year, while flows to the US fell by 5%. Freighter capacity that once served the transpacific trade is now being redeployed onto Europe-bound routes, reflecting a broader structural change in demand patterns. Spot rates reinforce the shift: prices to the US are 9% lower year on year, while Europe-bound rates remain stable.

Globally, air cargo performance was more balanced. Worldwide tonnages rose 3% in August, although rates slipped by a similar margin compared with last year. Growth was strongest from Asia Pacific origins, which recorded a 7% increase, while Europe, North America and Middle East/South Asia remained flat. Central and South America also posted a modest 3% uplift.

Despite geopolitical turbulence and ongoing trade disruption, Asia Pacific airfreight has proven resilient. Volumes from the region have posted year-on-year gains in every month of 2025, continuing a positive, if slower, trend from 2024. Year-to-date, global tonnages are up 3% while ex-Asia Pacific volumes have grown 7%, compared with double-digit growth over the same period last year.

Rate dynamics tell a more complex story. While charges rose in the early months of 2025, they have been trending down since May. On balance, rates remain around 1% higher than last year, supported by strong performance in the first quarter.

Looking ahead, further disruption is expected as new US policies take effect. The imposition of 50% tariffs on imports from India and the extension of de minimis removals to all global suppliers are likely to alter trade flows once again, adding further uncertainty to transpacific demand while potentially reinforcing Europe’s role as a key outlet for China’s exports.

With trade patterns shifting rapidly, now is the time to review your airfreight strategy.

Speak to our air freight team today to secure capacity, protect service levels, and keep your supply chain moving.